What a valuation is, and what it is not
A valuation estimates the value of a business, or a share in it, at a specific date and for a specific purpose. The purpose matters. A business is worth one amount to a buyer who can cut costs, another to a minority shareholder, and another again in a forced sale.
Value and price are not the same thing. Value is an estimate built from analysis. Price is what a buyer and a seller actually agree. A good valuation helps you decide whether a price is reasonable.
The three approaches
- Income approach (DCF). Value the cash the business is expected to produce, converted into today's money. Best when you can forecast cash flows with reasonable confidence.
- Market approach (multiples). Value the business by comparing it with similar companies, using the multiples of listed peers or the prices paid in past deals. Best when good comparables exist.
- Asset approach. Value the assets less the liabilities. Best for holding companies, property companies and businesses that earn little from operations.
Most reports use more than one approach. When different methods point to a similar range, confidence goes up. When they differ, the gap is the most useful thing to explain.
A valuation, step by step
- Agree the purpose, the valuation date and the standard of value, for example fair market value.
- Understand the business: how it makes money, who its customers are and what drives its margins.
- Normalise the financials by removing one-off items and owner-related costs, so earnings show normal performance. See normalised EBITDA.
- Build a forecast of revenue, costs, investment and working capital, usually for five to ten years.
- Choose the discount rate and the terminal value assumptions.
- Run the valuation methods and compare the results.
- Move from enterprise value to equity value by subtracting net debt and debt-like items.
- Test the answer with sensitivity tables and state a range, with the reasoning.
The discount rate
In a DCF, the discount rate converts future cash into today's value. It is usually the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which blends the cost of debt and the cost of equity. The cost of equity is commonly estimated with CAPM: the risk-free rate, plus beta times the equity risk premium, plus an extra premium for country risk where relevant.
Small changes in the discount rate move value a lot, so it should be tested rather than treated as a fact. Professor Damodaran's free datasets give industry betas, costs of capital and country risk premiums, and are a good starting point. See our data sources and the cost of equity and WACC calculator.
Terminal value
In many DCF valuations more than half of the value sits in the terminal value: the value of cash flows beyond the forecast period. It is estimated with either a steady growth rate or an exit multiple. Because it carries so much weight, check it. The growth rate should be modest, and the implied exit multiple should look sensible next to similar businesses.
Market multiples
A valuation multiple divides a value by a measure of performance. EV/EBITDA is the most common for whole businesses. P/E is common for listed shares.
- Pick truly comparable companies: same industry, similar growth, similar size.
- Use the same definition of EBITDA for every company.
- Adjust for differences in country, currency and risk.
- Apply the multiple to normalised earnings, not to a single unusual year.
Damodaran publishes average multiples by industry for Europe, India, emerging markets and the world. You will find the links on our data sources page.
Valuing private companies
Private companies need extra care. Their shares are harder to sell, which can justify a discount for lack of marketability. A buyer who takes control may pay a control premium over the price of a minority share. Information is usually less complete, and dependence on the owner or on a few customers lowers value.
Putting the results together
Analysts often show the result of each method on a chart called a football field. Each bar is a range. Where the bars overlap is where value is most likely to sit.
Common mistakes
- Using one method and presenting a single number.
- Forecasts that grow faster than the market for too long.
- A terminal growth rate above the long-run growth of the economy.
- Comparing multiples of companies that are not really similar.
- Mixing currencies, or mixing real and nominal numbers, in the same model.
- Forgetting debt-like items when moving from enterprise value to equity value.
- Ignoring how sensitive the answer is to the discount rate.
Valuing businesses in the GCC, India and Europe
The method is the same everywhere. The inputs differ. Use a risk-free rate and a growth rate in the same currency as the cash flows. Add a country risk premium where it is relevant. Check whether listed comparables exist locally, and if they do not, use regional or global peers with careful adjustments.
Be clear about accounting standards. IFRS is common in the Gulf and in Europe, while India uses Ind AS, which is closely aligned with IFRS. See the regional versions of Damodaran's betas, costs of capital and multiples on our data sources page.
Questions
How long does a business valuation take?
A simple valuation can take days. A full valuation with a financial model and a written report often takes a few weeks, depending on how quickly information arrives.
Which valuation method is best?
No single method is best. Analysts usually use at least two, such as DCF and market multiples, and compare them. Agreement between methods builds confidence. A gap between them is worth explaining.
What is a good EV/EBITDA multiple?
There is no universal good number. It depends on industry, growth, margins, risk and country. Compare with similar companies. Damodaran's industry tables are a useful starting point.
How accurate is a valuation?
A valuation is an informed estimate. Reasonable experts can differ. A range with clear assumptions is more honest and more useful than a single number.
Related explainers
- What is a DCF (discounted cash flow)?
- What is WACC (weighted average cost of capital)?
- What is terminal value?
- What are valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA, P/E)?
- What is enterprise value?
- What is beta in finance?
Try it and keep reading
- Cost of equity and WACC calculator
- Stock intrinsic value calculator
- Free 3-statement model template
- Valuation service
- Damodaran: betas by sector (global)
- Damodaran: costs of capital by sector
- Damodaran: EV/EBITDA multiples by sector
- Damodaran: country risk premiums
- International Valuation Standards Council